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Odds To Win The Super Bowl: 3 Sleepers to Keep an Eye On

The NFL preseason has not even thought about starting but that should not stop bettors from capitalizing on some juicy lines to win the Super Bowl. We all know about the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles of the world but what about beyond them? What about the teams that are coming into the 2018 NFL season with lowered expectations that could shock the world?

That is what I am here to uncover. I dug into the betting odds and the lineups of 32 NFL teams to determine where early bettors can find the best value in the Super Bowl market. So, without further ado, here are two sleepers and one deep sleeper who could surprise the football world and win Super Bowl 53.

NFC Super Bowl Sleeper: Carolina Panthers

In case you forgot, the Carolina Panthers went 11-5 last season and made the playoffs. Though they ultimately bowed out during Wild Card Weekend, the Panthers managed to make it into the postseason and remain competitive despite key injuries all over the field and plenty of off-the-field issues causing unwanted headlines.

The Panthers defense was one of the best in the NFL last season thanks to a completely ineffective passing game. And though Cam Newton did his best, the talented quarterback can only do so much with a passing attack led by Devin Funchess. Carolina addressed this during the offseason by bringing in Torrey Smith and Jarius Wright while also drafting D.J. Moore in the first round. It may take some time but the added talent should make the passing attack respectable, which will only aid an already great rushing attack.

Defensively, the Panthers were one of the best teams in the NFL last season. And though they lost Star Lotulelei to the Buffalo Bills, the bulk of the unit returns in 2018. If Carolina’s defense had an issue last season, it was the secondary. The Panthers then drafted Donte Jackson and versatile Rashaan Gaulden, both players who should immediately make an impact. Yes, the Panthers lost their second defensive coordinator in as many years but they replaced Steven Wilks with Eric Washington, who has been the defensive line coach since 2011. The defense will remain largely the same as it was under Wilks and Sean McDermott.

How often can you find a team coming off an 11-5 season that has improved its roster and is offering +3500 odds? Trust me, not often. If we are talking about the best, most realistic sleeper to win Super Bowl 53, it is the Panthers.

AFC Super Bowl Sleeper: Denver Broncos

If the ghost of Peyton Manning can lead the Denver Broncos to a Super Bowl, then you better believe Case Keenum can. Is Keenum as good as he was in Minnesota last season? Likely not. Is Keenum is bad as he was the season before in Los Angeles? No. The real Case Keenum is somewhere in the middle but that is still far superior to the play of Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch.

The Broncos defense was one of the best in the NFL last season and though they lost Aqib Talib, Chris Harris and Bradley Roby still form one of the better cornerback duos in the league. Plus, the defense added Bradley Chubb – arguably the best player in the draft – to pair with Von Miller to create what should be an unstoppable pass rush. That should excite Broncos fans and remind them of the Miller-DeMarcus Ware combination that helped lead the team to the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.

Undoubtedly, the biggest concern is the offensive line. Garett Bolles had plenty of issues with pass protection as a rookie – recording the second-most penalties among all offensive linemen – but should only get better in his second year. Plus, the Broncos brought in Jared Veldheer to start on the right side. The 30-year-old had issues when he was moved to the right side last season but started to put it together before being forced back to the left.

The Broncos are a bit of a risky play due to their offensive line. However, if Bolles can grow and Veldheer can solidify the right side, then all of a sudden the Denver offense that struggled last season becomes an efficient machine led by Keenum. The defense will once again be excellent, and you can find worse bets on the board than taking an elite defense with hopes the offense catches up.

Deep Super Bowl Sleeper: Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins have pieces for a Super Bowl run right now – but for the team to pull off the miracle, it will need some big contributions from positions that struggled last season. Namely, the big men in the trenches.

Washington’s offensive line was not good last season but that had much more to do with injury than the talent itself. The Redskins used 27 different combinations on the offensive line – the most in the NFL – with injuries to Trent Williams and Brandon Scherff specifically causing issues. It was simply bad luck. There is no way injuries riddle them nearly as severely as last season, which will help the rushing game get going and help alleviate pressures on new quarterback Alex Smith.

The Redskins’ defensive line was simply not very good last season. It didn’t help that first-round pick Jonathan Allen struggled with injuries and only played five games. With Allen being injured, the lack of depth became very apparent and Washington spent all season being run all over. However, with Allen healthy and the addition of first-round pick – and Allen’s former collegiate teammate – Da’Ron Payne playing up front, the D-line suddenly becomes light years better. Payne brings a legitimate nose tackle to a 3-4 defense in desperate need of one, which should make a big difference.

Are the Redskins anywhere near the best team in football? No. I’m not shocking anyone by saying that. However, the team has a legit quarterback, weapons at both running back and receiver with huge potential and a defense that should make a noticeable improvement. And though the NFC will be incredibly competitive this season, the Redskins at +7500 is a tempting line to take a punt on.

Odds to win Super Bowl 53
New England Patriots+650
Philadelphia Eagles+850
Pittsburgh Steelers+1000
Los Angeles Rams+1100
Minnesota Vikings+1100
Green Bay Packers+1400
New Orleans Saints+1800
Houston Texans+1800
San Francisco 49ers+2000
Atlanta Falcons+2000
Los Angeles Chargers+2200
Jacksonville Jaguars+2200
Oakland Raiders+2800
Kansas City Chiefs+3000
New York Giants+3300
Dallas Cowboys+3300
Carolina Panthers+3500
Denver Broncos+4000
Tennessee Titans+4500
Baltimore Ravens+5500
Detroit Lions+5500
Seattle Seahawks+6000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+7000
Indianapolis Colts+7000
Washington Redskins+7500
Cleveland Browns+8000
Arizona Cardinals+10000
Buffalo Bills+10000
Cincinnati Bengals+10000
Chicago Bears+10000
Miami Dolphins+15000
New York Jets+20000

Odds as of June 13 at Bovada

Archived Articles

Despite several teams reshaping their roster – for better or worse – in the NFL draft, oddsmakers have found little reason for any drastic movement in the Super Bowl futures.

The top teams in the NFL according to the odds are the New England Patriots (+500), Philadelphia Eagles (+800), Los Angeles Rams (+900), Pittsburgh Steelers (+1000), Minnesota Vikings (+1200) and the Green Bay Packers (+1200). Each of those six teams was largely already set for next season with rookies expected to fill smaller voids in the lineup.

This draft was an interesting one – from both a talent and draft order perspective – with seemingly very few players who could help transform a team. In fact, none of the four teams with a top-five pick in the draft (the Cleveland Browns had the first and fourth overall picks) saw their odds to win the Super Bowl increase. Quite the opposite, with three of those teams seeing their odds get worse.

The most notable climber is the Indianapolis Colts, who went from +6000 to +4000. The Colts wisely spent two of their top three picks on offensive linemen – including blue-chipper Quenton Nelson – in the hopes of protecting Andrew Luck once he gets back on the field. It was interesting that both those selections were guards but after watching the number of injuries affect the Colts O-line last season, depth is not a bad thing.

One team that surprised me to actually drop slightly after the draft was the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers had one of the better drafts top to bottom, addressing areas of concern by drafting DJ Moore to be the new No. 1 receiver and Donte Jackson to work in the slot. They also got versatile playmakers with high upside in Rashaan Gaulden and Ian Thomas.

Now that the draft is over, we wait for training camp and the ensuing quarterback battles we will all get far too invested in – even if we have zero rooting interest in the team.

Odds to win Super Bowl 53
New England Patriots+500
Philadelphia Eagles+800
Los Angeles Rams+900
Pittsburgh Steelers+1000
Minnesota Vikings+1200
Green Bay Packers+1200
San Francisco 49ers+1500
New Orleans Saints+2200
Houston Texans+2500
Atlanta Falcons+3000
Oakland Raiders+3000
Dallas Cowboys+3000
Denver Broncos+3000
Seattle Seahawks+3000
Carolina Panthers+3500
Jacksonville Jaguars+3500
Los Angeles Chargers+3500
Kansas City Chiefs+4000
Baltimore Ravens+4000
Indianapolis Colts+4000
Tennessee Titans+4500
Detroit Lions+6000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+6500
New York Giants+7500
Washington Redskins+8000
Arizona Cardinals+8000
Buffalo Bills+10000
Cleveland Browns+10000
Miami Dolphins+10000
Chicago Bears+10000
Cincinnati Bengals+10000
New York Jets+10000

Odds as of May 1 at Bovada

Archived Articles

The Los Angeles Rams were the surprise of the 2017 NFL season, becoming one of the best and most exciting teams in the NFL. Expectations were sky-high at the end of last season but the Rams now hold the fourth-best odds to win Super Bowl 53 after their aggressive offseason.  

Les Snead has no intention of letting this team rest on its laurels, as the Rams general manager has gone full Madden franchise mode this offseason. 

The Rams acquired a pair of former Pro Bowl corners in Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib for next to nothing, then signed Ndamukong Suh to a one-year deal. Adding that trio to an already loaded defense that features Aaron Donald, Lamarcus Joyner and horribly underrated John Johnson could make it the best defense in the NFL.

But, of course, there is a reason Peters, Talib and Suh all came relatively cheaply. All three of those players are head cases with plenty of rumored personality issues in the locker room. Peters wore out his welcome in Kansas City after infamously throwing a referee’s flag into the crowd, Talib has long been known for his brash behavior both on and off the field and Suh was cut from the Dolphins – despite being one of the best defensive tackles in football – because he was too much to deal with behind the scenes.   

Yes, all three are incredibly talented but can that many egos survive in one locker room – let alone one in the city of Los Angeles?

We don’t know, but if any coaching duo can theoretically make it work, it is the tandem of Sean McVay and Wade Phillips. It has not taken long for players around the league to legitimately want to play for McVay even though he’s the youngest coach in NFL history. The offensive wunderkind relates to players on a level that no other coach in the NFL can. Then there is the 70-year-old Phillips, who – aside from being one of the best defensive minds of his generation – has a long-standing history of getting former problem players to play to their maximum potential.

The Rams defense is basically a box of dynamite. The destructive force is undeniable when harnessed properly but you need to correct people planting the charges or it will blow up in their faces. We don’t know yet if McVay and Phillips are the right tandem to handle all the combustive elements but there is no duo in the NFL I would trust more right now.

That’s only the defense, though. The Rams featured one of the top offenses in the NFL last season thanks to McVay’s scheming, Jared Goff’s growth and Todd Gurley’s overall excellence. Yeah, they need to replace the production of Sammy Watkins but the Rams still have Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp at receiver – plus a wealth of young potential pass-catchers.

The Rams legitimately look like one of the best teams in football. Unlike previous teams that acquired a bunch of older talent in the past, the Rams are mixing veterans with a young core that has already proven it can compete with the best. Nobody wins a Super Bowl in the offseason but the Rams have convinced more than a few people that they have their sights set on the Lombardi Trophy this season.

Odds to win Super Bowl 53
New England Patriots+500
Philadelphia Eagles+850
Minnesota Vikings+900
Los Angeles Rams+1200
Pittsburgh Steelers+1200
San Francisco 49ers+1200
Green Bay Packers+1400
New Orleans Saints+2000
Atlanta Falcons+2200
Jacksonville Jaguars+2200
Houston Texans+2200
Oakland Raiders+2200
Denver Broncos+2500
Seattle Seahawks+2800
Dallas Cowboys+2800
Carolina Panthers+3300
Kansas City Chiefs+3300
Los Angeles Chargers+3300
Baltimore Ravens+5000
Tennessee Titans+5000
Detroit Lions+5000
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+5000
New York Giants+5000
Indianapolis Colts+6000
Washington Redskins+6600
Buffalo Bills+6600
Arizona Cardinals+6600
Cleveland Browns+6600
Miami Dolphins+7000
Chicago Bears+8000
Cincinnati Bengals+9000
New York Jets+10000

Odds as of March 28 at Bovada